This is only Mo'Nique's first nomination, but her wins with the Golden Globes, National Society of Film Critics, and SAG gives her the most momentum

Here at Movie-Thoughts we’re taking it upon ourselves to analyze the nominees for this year’s Academy Awards, figuring out who has the best chance to win their category. We’ll be examining major categories like Best Picture and Best Director, but leading up to these we’ll also examine categories like Best Screenplay and Best Actor. Our Marisa Carpico starts us off with the following evaluation.

Best Supporting Actress

Considering she’s won a Golden Globe, a Screen Actors Guild Award and a Critic’s Choice Award, Mo’Nique is the most likely candidate to win.  If by some shocking turn of events Mo’Nique loses, there’s no telling who could win.  Vera Farmiga’s beguiling performance in Up in the Air is a likely front-runner.  Penélope Cruz is an Oscar favorite, but her role in Nine is far too similar to her Vicky Christina Barcelona character, for which she won the award last year.  Maggie Gyllenhaal gave an interesting performance in Crazy Heart, but it’s the weakest of the group.  The dark horse in this category is Anna Kendrick.  Despite a show-stealing performance in Up in the Air, Kendrick’s youth acts against her and she has plenty of time for another nomination.

ANNA KENDRICK - Up in the Air

Strengths: Fast-talking Comedy and Ambitious Youngsters

Though still fairly new to acting, Kendrick holds her own against her Up in the Air costars and is more than able to keep up with George Clooney in their characters’ verbal sparring matches.  Kendrick plays A-type overachiever Natalie Keener well and has played similar roles in the past, most notably in 2007’s Rocket Science in which she basically plays a younger version of the same character.  Kendrick fully embodies every aspect of Natalie’s personality from her ambition to her subtle insecurities.  Likely her best scene in the film occurs when her character describes every attribute of her ideal mate.  Though the scene shows the extent of Natalie’s desire for control and Kendrick could easily have made her into a caricature, she plays the moment without mocking the character thus making her more realistic.

Weaknesses: Experience and Versatility

Despite Kendrick’s enjoyable performance, her inexperience may discourage voters.  She is young and therefore has plenty of time to give another Oscar-worthy performance.  Kendrick also has issues with versatility.  Her role as Natalie certainly offers her more dramatic moments, but those scenes are somewhat less compelling than the comedic scenes.

Odds: Has a chance

PENÉLOPE CRUZ - Nine

Strengths: Passion and Insanity

In Nine, Cruz plays a character similar to her role in Vicky Christina Barcelona, which won her an Oscar last year.  As Guido Contini’s lover Carla, Cruz plays a slightly eccentric sexpot.  She is entirely believable as Guido’s neglected mistress and she plays the character with just enough reality to keep her from becoming ridiculous.  Cruz also performs wonderfully in her single musical number and her sexuality in the scene commands attention.

Weaknesses: Complexity and Previous Win

Though the Academy has no problem rewarding actors in successive years, Cruz’s turn as Carla is far too similar to her Vicky Christina character Marie Elena.  That performance was far more layered and passionate than her role as Carla.  The performance is certainly still interesting, but certainly not stronger than the previous performance.

Odds: Unlikely

MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL - Crazy Heart

Strengths: Confidence and Emotionality

Though Gyllenhaal’s character Jean is the typical good woman who comes into a man’s life and changes him for the better, she brings a surprising allure to the role that refreshes the idea.  Gyllenhaal doesn’t typically play “sexy” roles, but she endows Jean with a subtle sexuality and confidence that leave no doubt about why Jeff Bridges’s character Bad Blake falls in love with her.  Jean’s strong and grounded presence is the perfect counterpart to Blake’s instability.  However, Gyllenhaal also plays the part with a hint of vulnerability.  One of her best scenes in the film comes when she betrays Jean’s attachment to Blake after he writes a beautiful new song while lying in her bed.  The scene at once conveys Jean’s fear of losing Blake and her insecurities and Gyllenhaal’s performance gives it the proper emotional depth.

Weaknesses: Believability and a Defining Moment

As mentioned above, Gyllenhaal plays Jean as a confident and strong woman and it’s no wonder Blake is attracted to her.  However, the problem lies within whether such a woman could fall in love with someone like Blake.  Gyllenhaal perhaps makes the mistake of making Jean too confident and making her seem too far out of Blake’s league.  Certainly Blake has a certain attraction, but it sometimes seems a little baffling that he could interest Jean.  Moreover, Gyllenhaal lacks any big dramatic scene that voters could identify as the character’s defining moment.  The closest she comes occurs when Jean argues with Blake after he makes a major mistake.  However, the scene is too brief to really stand out and Gyllenhaal’s atmospheric performance may be too subtle.

Odds: Unlikely

MO’NIQUE - Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

Strengths: Previous Wins and Power

Considering Mo’Nique has already won the Golden Globe, the SAG Award and the Critics Choice Award, it’s basically a foregone conclusion that she will win on March 7^th.  And her performance in the film certainly merits the attention.  In Precious’s mother Mary, Mo’Nique managed to create one of the most hatable and frightening characters of the year.  Her intensity in every scene is never over-the-top and she plays the role with a stunning realism.  She seems constantly on the edge of violence and the power of the performance is perhaps what makes sympathizing with Precious so easy.  However, her most impressive achievement in the role is her ability to make the character sympathetic in the final climactic scene.  In a monologue that attempts to explain her abuse, Mo’Nique reveals the loneliness and self-hatred that have made Mary the way she is.  Even if the rest of her performance weren’t incredible, that scene alone would merit her winning.

Weaknesses: Campaigning and Past Career

Considering her momentum, it’s nearly impossible Mo’Nique will lose, but there are two tiny factors that could hurt her.  The first is her unwillingness to campaign for an Oscar.  As much as the ceremony is a recognition of talent, it’s also political and Mo’Nique, in more than one interview, has refused to campaign for the award claiming the work speaks for itself.  The second is her past career.  Her role in Precious is her most serious dramatic role to date and the Academy may be wary of awarding someone whose past résumé includes films like Phat Girlz and Soul Plane.

Odds: Likely

VERA FARMIGA - Up in the Air

Strengths: Allure and Mystery

Though co-stars George Clooney and Anna Kendrick could easily have overshadowed her, Farmiga managed to give an equally compelling performance.  Her sexy and composed portrayal of Alex never failed to attract attention.  Farmiga made the character into a perfect counterpart to Clooney’s lovable cad Ryan Bingham.  Though she owns nearly every scene in which she appears, perhaps her best moment is her opening scene.  Farmiga’s mysterious come-hither look makes Bingham’s attraction immediately clear.  The character could easily have become one-note, but there is always the sense there is something else hiding just beneath the surface of Alex’s sexy façade.

Weaknesses: Competition and Drama

Any other year and Farmiga would probably have a good chance of winning the award.  Her performance is strong, but her competitors’ performances are stronger.  Anna Kendrick would likely win the award before Farmiga since she’s received far more awards and buzz for her performance.  Perhaps the role’s only weakness is the fact that Farmiga lacks any big dramatic moment.  Alex is alluring and mildly mysterious and that’s about it.  The character isn’t nearly as well-rounded as Kendrick’s.

Odds: Has a chance