It's neck and neck between Sandra Bullock and Helen Mirren for the Best Leading Actress Oscar, but Bullock slightly leads thanks to awards by Critic's Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG

It’s almost time! Going through the final few categories will hopefully help you get in the mood for tomorrow night’s festivities, which are sure to be as exciting as ever. Enjoy our newest analysis!

Also See: Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Leading Actor, Best Original Screenplay

Best Actress in a Leading Role

This year’s Best Leading Actress pool is filled to the brim with deserving talent and performances, arguably more so than usual. What isn’t unusual is that it’s a tight race for who is actually going to win the gold statuette. The competition is stiff, but it would appear that the two leaders are Sandra Bullock and Helen Mirren, followed closely by Meryl Streep. Bringing up the rear is, of course, the younger two of the nominees, Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe, respectfully. Helen Mirren’s performance is said to be the most powerful, however Bullock has earned the majority of the Leading Actress awards leading up to the Academy Awards.

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

Strengths: On-screen charisma, popularity

There have been a number of people who have claimed in roundabout ways that Sandra Bullock was born to play Mrs. Tuohy. Much like her performance in Miss Congeniality, here she again emits a charisma on screen that audiences have been unable to depreciate. This time around, however, she shows the ability to play with heart strings, not just funny bones. Bullock has been considered a viable talent for a number of years, but her performance here perhaps demonstrates best her ability to play a wide range of emotions and mindsets. The result has impressed a lot of people, which certainly has had something to do with her winning the Critic’s Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG awards for Best Actress. These wins have given her the most momentum of any of the nominees for the Best Leading Actress Oscar, and it may even carry her all the way to a win.

Weaknesses: Vehicle role, Razzie nomination

Being that the accompanying movie, The Blind Side, was very popular at the box office, it’s no wonder that Bullock has garnered so much fan support. But critics weren’t as enamored. The film itself failed to show up on hardly any lists ranking the best movies of the year. But because Bullock pretty much carried the movie on her back a lot of credit has to be given to her for its success. On the flip side, the Academy might see her success as being more easily achievable because the film was her own vehicle with which to shine as brightly as she could, while other nominees in this category fought to stand out amongst a high-profile cast. And it may just be nothing to worry about, but research shows that no actor or actress has ever been nominated for a Razzie and won an Oscar in the same year (she was nominated for her performance in All About Steve).

Odds: Likely

Helen Mirren – The Last Station

Strengths: Complexity of character, age

What does it mean to play a complex character, besides the obvious? They must be “three dimensional” of course, but this aspect is usually thanks in large part to the quality of writing. This being the case, though, it still takes a deft actor to transcribe the complexity of a written character to the screen. Helen Mirren has had a history of doing this, with her last effort as Queen Elizabeth II in 2006′s The Queen winning her the same Oscar that she’s pursuing now. Impersonation abilities aside, her ability to portray complexity is demonstrated through her delivery. This means that subtlety and authenticity are key. The more you believe she is not Helen Mirren and is instead her character while watching her perform, the more authentic she becomes. In this particular case, Mirren runs with this authenticity and uses it to convey a wide range of emotions that are based on the deep and varying motives that drive her character. Being that she won the Oscar before for these talents it is not at all inconceivable that she’ll win it again. Her nominations in this category for the Golden Globe and SAG awards of course only help her cause, but her age might also be a strong factor. Not that she’s expected to retire anytime soon, but it’s often thought year after year that the Academy is willing to favor more tenured actors and actresses.

Weaknesses: Stronger supporting cast

The only two things that are keeping Mirren from being a lock for the Oscar are her supporting cast and Sandra Bullock. The competition from Bullock is fierce because of critic and audience support, and depending on how the voters view things they could decide that Mirren’s performance was less impressive because she was able to work with an “A” Grade cast that featured Christopher Plummer (who is also nominated), James McAvoy, and Paul Giamatti. Meanwhile, Sandra Bullock was “forced” to do most of the heavy lifting on her own. It all depends on which way the voters looked at it.

Odds: Likely

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Strengths: Character arch

In playing a 16 year old girl who isn’t actually as foolhardy and naïve as most real ones probably are, Carey Mulligan was able to bring to her character a sense of maturity that enabled her to fulfill her part in getting the film’s overall theme across. That them is, more or less, that no matter how smart you may think you are or how ready you might feel, if you’re a youth you simply cannot be prepared for everything the “real world” has to throw at you-particularly with regards to relationships. Mulligan’s ability to display both uncommon maturity as well as typical naïveté is arguably the sole reason that this theme is able to get across. Otherwise the film becomes just another tale of how the world is too much for kids to handle. A nomination for Best Actress for the Golden Globe and victory in the same category for the BAFTA awards shows how widely acknowledged her talents are.

Weaknesses: Age

Pretty much the only thing holding Carey back is her youth. Being under 25 years old and already nominated for an Oscar shows a lot of promise, but it seldom means a win for a Leading Role. Youth has a better chance of winning a Best Supporting Oscar than Best Leading one, but stranger things have happened. Her rise from roles like the youngest sister in Pride and Prejudice to being an Oscar nominee is hugely impressive, but likewise shows that she is capable of getting nominated many more times in the future if she continues on this starry path. However, if by some stretch of the imagination she does win it will be a testimony to her performance, which is truly remarkable.

Odds: Unlikely

Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Strengths: Emotion and Realism

Though co-star Mo’Nique arguably steals the show, Sidibe plays troubled teen Clareece “Precious” Jones with surprising skill for a first-time actress.  While Sidibe could easily exaggerate the tragedy of Precious’s life and reduce her to a victim, she instead chooses to play Precious’s emotions with an honest realism that makes the character both believable and empathetic.  Perhaps her most remarkable scene comes when Precious cries that nobody loves her after being confronted with yet another hardship.  Sidibe perfectly expresses the character’s depression and desperation and the frankness of the emotion makes the scene both devastating and utterly believable.

Weaknesses: Experience and Competition

As impressive as Sidibe’s performance is, the fact remains that this is her first performance.  She certainly shows a lot of promise in the role, but for such an untested actress, the nomination is more of an expectation of good performances to come than a real shot at a win.  The Academy tends to favor tenured actors over breakthrough performers, so Sidibe would have a hard time beating fellow nominees, and veterans, Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep.

Odds: Unlikely

Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia

Strengths: Is Meryl Streep, Hasn’t won since Sophie’s Choice (1983)

Meryl Streep continues her legendary career as “The Meryl Streep” in her turn as Julia Child in the split biopic Julie and Julia. Her character/impersonation is of such a high caliber that not only would the Academy been scolded for snubbing it but they probably would have been second guessing themselves over whoever they might have nominated in her place for years to come. Fortunately that isn’t the case. Going in her favor is critical endorsement, a Golden Globe (for musical or comedy), a SAG nomination, and the fact that, although this is now her 16^th Oscar nomination (incredible!), she has not won an Oscar since 1983 for her performance in Sophie’s Choice. Being that she was nominated just last year for her role in Doubt and ended up being nominated yet again this year just might have convinced the voters to go ahead and provide her with the award that she has earned by building an astounding career which rivals that of any great Hollywood actress living or dead.

Weaknesses: Numerous wins/nominations

Her 15 previous nominations could be a double-edged sword, however. Those who voted might be of the opinion that since she already has an established career that is forever imbedded into the history of Hollywood, it might be more fair to award the Oscar to someone whose career could benefit more greatly from such an accolade.

Odds: Has a chance

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*Marisa Carpico assisted with this article

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