James Cameron's "Avatar" is the obvious pick for Best Picture, but Kathryn Bigelow's "The Hurt Locker" is just as likely to win

We’ve reached the conclusion to our Oscar Countdown! Below is our analysis of the last two categories. You can find the nominees for Best Director listed under their respective films for easy navigation. Our writers Clifford Bugle and Marisa Carpico collaborated on this final post to our Countdown to ensure that the most amount of thought went into it. We hope you enjoy the Oscars, and it’s not too late to tell us what you think! Send us your thoughts.

Best Picture and Director

We’ve concluded that the science fiction epic Avatar and poignant war drama The Hurt Locker have an equal chance of winning the Oscar for Best Picture, but it’s interesting to figure exactly why that is. Read below to find out why they’re favored to win, and what other nominees might frog leap them to take home the gold statuette.

AVATAR

For a film that took a decade and record-breaking financing to make, James Cameron’s Avatar fulfilled expectations better than anyone could have anticipated. In creating such technological advancements in the field of visual effects, the film will forever be noted for being one of the most brilliant spectacles ever seen on the silver screen. The inclusion of groundbreaking 3D technology will have assisted with its reputation, and no doubt helped it become one of the most memorable moviegoing experiences in movie history. The only real gripe that audiences and critics seemed to have was that the plot and character types weren’t very original. That being said, such a shortcoming must not have bothered too many people as Avatar has become to most profitable movie in history. Being that the Oscars are given out by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, there’s a very good chance that they’ll try to recognize the film’s impact on the industry and honor its amazing technological achievements.

Odds: Likely

James Cameron

Spectacles and the name “James Cameron” kind of go hand in hand. He won the Academy over for his last visual epic Titanic (1997) to the tune of 11 Oscar wins, and he put in even more effort this time around for Avatar. One of those 11 wins was for Best Director, and the fact that he’s nominated again for this picture indicates he has better than a sporting chance at winning it again. However, going into the Academy Awards Cameron does not have as much momentum as some of the other nominees. He was nominated for directing by BAFTA and the Director’s Guild of America, but won neither. It may not mean much, though, as he also wasn’t awarded by the DGA for Titanic. He did win the Golden Globe though, which could be a precursor.

Odds: Has a chance

THE BLIND SIDE

This movie based from Michael Lewis’ book The Blind Side about homeless teenager turned NFL player Michael Oher was by far the most popular inspirational picture of the year, earning close to $200 million domestically. But the reason for this is not just because Sandra Bullock submitted an Oscar nominated performance, it’s because the story itself struck a particular chord. Main character Michael owes a lot to the Tuohy family for extending such a selfless hand during a trying time in the young man’s life. With no home or family to speak of the well-off Touhys found young Mike on the side of a road and insisted that he come live with them. With proper love, affection, and guidance, the Tuohys were able to help Mike graduate from a well-to-do private high school as well as earn a football scholarship that led him towards being drafted 23^rd overall in the 2009 NFL draft by the Baltimore Ravens. All in all, it’s a story about how with proper loving and guidance people can grow up to be anything they want to be. All of this may explain the film’s nomination for Best Picture, but regarding its chances to win the Oscar the outlook doesn’t look favorable. With no other “big” nominations supporting it besides Sandra Bullock’s for Best Leading Actress, it’s fighting a steep uphill battle.

Odds: Unlikely

DISTRICT 9

Confidently directed by Neill Blomkamp, District 9 is likely one of the most surprising films of the year.  Though Oscar favorite Peter Jackson produced the film, it still managed to surprise audiences with the originality of its vision.  Everything about the film from its convincing yet subtle special effects to Sharlto Copley’s strong lead performance as bumbling government official Wikus helped to make the film a completely believable and entertaining film.  However, perhaps the film’s most surprising aspect was its complicated allegory of racial strife in South Africa.  By replacing the country’s black population with aliens, the film offered both an intriguing science fiction tale and a biting criticism of racial politics.

Odds: Unlikely

AN EDUCATION

Certainly not the most popular of the nominees among audiences, as it played in only a fraction of the number of theaters that the above two films did, An Education won the Academy over for a nomination because of the performances within it. Starring Carey Mulligan (nominated for Best Leading Actress), Peter Sarsgaard, and Alfred Malina, along with other notable supporting talent such as Rosamond Pike and Olivia Williams, the quality of acting that accompanies the story about a teenage girl who gets in over her head is on a level that impresses both the mind and heart. The story itself is just as relevant as ever, making the case that although the youths of the world may see themselves as more reasonable and at least equally intelligent as adults they still have much to learn-especially when it comes to learning about people. The fact that the story centers around a teenage girl in 1960s Britain makes it open for various levels of interpretation. Though the story is based from actual memoirs, social and sociopolitical commentary are easy to detect and contest. With regards to its chances to win the Oscar, unfortunately it falls victim to the same things holding back The Blind Side, which are no significant supporting nominations besides Carey Mulligan for Best Leading Actress.

Odds: Unlikely

THE HURT LOCKER

Along with Cameron’s Avatar, The Hurt Locker is the most awarded film of the Oscar season with wins at the BAFTA’s, or the UK’s version of the Oscars, the Critics Choice Awards and the Producers Guild of America.  That recognition is certainly deserved considering director Katherine Bigelow and screenwriter Mark Boal, both nominated for awards individually, have created one of the tensest films of the category.  Considering Locker follows a group of bomb defusing experts, the subject matter is rife with tension, but the combination of Bigelow’s tight framing, the seamless and snappy editing and Jeremy Renner’s intense performance creates an atmosphere of constant danger.  Like the bombs the characters defuse, the film is constantly on the edge of exploding into violence and the way Bigelow sustains that tension throughout the film is truly powerful.  Just as powerful is the subtlety with which the film criticizes war.  The film begins with the phrase “War is a drug” and Jeremy Renner’s character embodies that statement.  Bigelow and the rest of the crew never make a clear indictment against war, but the layered portrayal of its damaging effects is just as damming.

Odds: Likely

Kathryn Bigelow

The ex-wife of James Cameron has been directing for years, but it appears that she’s finally found her stride. With her job for The Hurt Locker she easily has the most momentum due winning directing awards from BAFTA, Critic’s Choice, National Society of Film Critics, Online Film Critics Society, and was even the first woman to receive the Director’s Guild of America Award. Her only loss was at the Golden Globes, but that shouldn’t hold her back any. Her recent accolades are thanks in large part due to her ability to not just create tension but sustain it. This is accomplished by taking advantage of our natural, primal fears, which are explored in more ways than one in her film. Subtlety and competence are the virtues that have propelled her to this point, and there’s a better than good chance that they’ll propel her towards winning this year’s Best Directing Oscar.

Odds: Likely

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

Quentin Tarantino continues to extend is auteurship with his newest effort about American soldiers who penetrate Nazi military zones and execute them one bloody bunch at a time. Where this film deviates from his other pictures is that instead of using his style to create just another fantastically entertaining original fiction he uses it to rewrite world history. The result creates an interesting effect that distorts fact but augments reality. The events that occur are fabricated from imagination, but a number of the characters convey a realness that is not often seen. Realness here is not meant to be mistaken for authenticity, but the successfulness of the former makes it seem like the latter. Coupled with this is the abstract fantasy of wish fulfillment, which the film provides minus only a big red bow. The mixture of realism with fantasy makes the film complex in terms of narrative construction, but thanks in part to the performances therein it is in fact rather easily interpreted. Tarantino’s nomination for Best Director gives this film a sporting chance to win because that category usually holds the most weight when the voters determine the Best Picture winner.

Odds: Has a chance

Quentin Tarantino

Tarantino has had the Academy’s attention since he won an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay for Pulp Fiction back in 1995, but has since come up short in blowing them away again. To emphasize this point, this is only his second Oscar nomination total and first for Best Director. But this nomination may be the very approval that he’s been looking for, as he’s done nothing with Inglourious Basterds that hasn’t made him a favorite among critics and audiences alike for the past 15 years. Strange he may be, but dumb he is not. Tarantino knows all the tricks of the trade, and what’s more is he is able to competently implement all of them. This is exactly what he shows the ability to do with Inglourious Basterds, incorporating humor (of varying types), drama, suspense, and horror into one film and blending them all together to create a final product that allows each of these elements to shine individually. Unfortunately, there is little momentum going in Tarantino’s favor, as he was nominated for directing by BAFTA, the DGA, and Golden Globes but failed to win an award from any.

Odds: Unlikely

PRECIOUS: Based on the novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

Though Director Lee Daniels, also nominated individually, has managed to make a strong picture all around, perhaps the most notable aspects of the film are the performances.  From Mo’Nique’s much-recognized and terrifying performance as an abusive mother, to Gabourey Sidibe’s strong and surprising performance as a young girl who faces one hardship after another, every performance in the film is realistic and memorable.  Because each performer avoids turning their character into a caricature, emotions and events never feel false and that characteristic is precisely what makes the film so impressive.

Odds: Has a chance

Lee Daniels

Though Precious is only Daniels’s second directorial effort, his work on the film indicates a unique new voice.  The world in which Precious lives is a vicious place and while Daniels could have chosen to film is in a strictly realist sense, he instead permeates the film with a number of impressionistic touches.  Throughout the film, Daniels ameliorates the horror of Precious’s experiences, the most remarkable being her recollection of her father’s sexual abuse, in order to convey exactly how the character experiences the events.  Though the technique can be somewhat jarring, it does offer an interesting perspective.  Just as impressive is Daniels’s skill at eliciting strong performances from all of his actors.  Gabourey Sidibe and Mo’Nique received Oscar nominations for their performances and Daniels likely deserves credit for pushing them both toward a higher level of acting.

Odds: Has a chance

A SERIOUS MAN

Since many critics have suggested A Serious Man is their best film yet, Joel and Ethan Coen have a chance of taking home a Best Picture Oscar tonight.  As in many of their previous films, the Coens use satire and caricature to create a film that is both darkly comedic and surprisingly poignant.  The film’s examination of the continual hardships Larry Gopnik, the serious man of the title, faces in the ridiculous reality in which he lives offer an intriguing method of questioning man’s relationship to God or even if God exists at all.  Just as impressive is the ridiculous yet dangerous atmosphere of Gopnik’s world, mainly manifested mainly through the film’s subdued color palate.  There is a dark pallor over every image in the film and the technique constantly suggests that something sinister lurks just around the corner waiting to destroy Gopnik.

Odds: Has a chance

UP

The Academy has a history of awarding Disney/Pixar, just look at the fact that their films often win in the Best Animated Feature category, so it’s no wonder Up was included in the Best Picture category this year.  The film is likely the most light-hearted nominee of the group and that fact could distinguish it from the other nominees.  However, the film is also emotionally powerful.  Many critics have pointed to one of the film’s early scenes, depicting protagonist Carl Fredricksen’s marriage to the girl of his dreams, as one of the best scenes the company has ever produced.  Indeed the strength of the scene’s emotion, even more impressive considering there is no dialogue, is indicative of the sentimentality that permeates the film.  Fredricksen’s progression and his slow return to humanity throughout the film are truly moving and the film is one of the more emotional nominees.

Odds: Unlikely

UP IN THE AIR

Social commentary is usually a bankable thing to include in a film if the goal is to get an audience’s attention. However, this hardly guarantees success. What makes social commentary actually worth noting and poignant is if it’s able to resonate with an audience. This is what Up in the Air was able to do. There are different types and levels of social commentary, as you surely know, and the type that is found in this film deals more with the individual than society at large. George Clooney’s character as a tumbleweed who refuses to think of himself as secluded because he’s constantly surrounded by people is the role that is not supposed to be immediately identifiable but recognizable if you’re at all like him. He’s not lonely, he’s simply alone. However, what this character realizes at the end of the story is that sometimes being alone causes you to be lonely. With enabling characters played by Best Supporting Actress nominees Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga they help steer Clooney’s character to this conclusion (how they do this you’ll have to find out by watching the film). Suffice it to say that it is the natures of these women that shape his thinking by pointing his attention to what is close to and right in front of him, resulting in his reformation. Because it is women who help him accomplish this, there are no doubt many social interpretive possibilities to be found. The addition of three other major nominations (two acting, one directing) gives this film a lot of leverage to win Best Picture, but it may not be enough to supplant Avatar and/or The Hurt Locker.

Odds: Has a chance

Jason Reitman

Last nominated for Best Director in 2008 for Juno, his nomination here could be indicative of him being a regular in this Oscar category. He was also nominated by the DGA and Golden Globes but came up short at both venues. This may seriously hinder his chances as he has little momentum to speak of (that is, indication that the same kind of peers that award the other accolades will award him at the Oscars), but what could possibly be just as good as previous awards for directing is the fact that he is partially responsible for the other nominations tied to his film. Supporting actresses Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga were both nominated under his watch, and he also helped bring out the potential in his and Sheldon Turner’s script, which is also nominated under the Best Adapted Screenplay category. When a director is proven to bring the best out of those he works with he stands a good chance to get recognized for such a capability.

Odds: Has a chance

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